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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 10 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 9 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 9 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 18 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
466 picks · 525 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 412 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
458 picks · 232 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 901 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:21
Roar Gaming 31%Team Lynx 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 18:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
41% · 216 games60% · 93 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Brewmaster
Brewmaster生死
44% · 89 games56% · 52 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Spectre
Spectreukiyo
63% · 4 games54% · 274 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
47% · 302 games57% · 161 game
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressLOyd
42% · 132 games56% · 163 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct31:27
Roar Gaming 30%Team Lynx 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:02:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
47% · 185 games65% · 19 games
Lone Druid7jesu
Lone Druid
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterukiyo
42% · 126 games54% · 258 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Legion Commander
Legion Commander生死
63% · 4 games54% · 92 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickCatYou
44% · 105 games49% · 174 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorLOyd
51% · 188 games55% · 65 games
Venomancerkreker
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 80%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2