Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 25 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Tiny
Shanks · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Rubick
Shanks · 14 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1075 bans
Doom
429 picks · 764 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 1009 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
373 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 816 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
Execration 66%XERXIA 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:11:39.
Game 2prediction correct35:35
Execration 66%XERXIA 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 45:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2