Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
Tiny
Michael · 14 games
Snapfire
ILICH- · 13 games
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 11 games
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 592 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
438 picks · 1074 bans
Doom
428 picks · 764 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 1008 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 816 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:38
beastcoast 57%Thunder Awaken 43%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:29.
Game 2prediction missed39:8
beastcoast 57%Thunder Awaken 43%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:43.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2