Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportsloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
chandogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Rubick
d1smar · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
chandogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
703 picks · 592 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1077 bans
Doom
428 picks · 763 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1009 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
Tiny
373 picks · 358 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% chandogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:15
Block Roar Esports 47%chandogs 53%
The model gave 53% on chandogs — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 41:40.
Game 2prediction correct32:51
Block Roar Esports 47%chandogs 53%
The model gave 53% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs in 1:10:13.
Game 3prediction correct9:20
Block Roar Esports 47%chandogs 53%
The model gave 53% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs in 34:21.
Model check result
Model favoritechandogs · 53%
Series resultchandogs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3