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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 48 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 596 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1083 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
429 picks · 758 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1011 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
377 picks · 203 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
375 picks · 538 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:26
Team Spirit 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCollapse
53% · 290 games44% · 168 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
53% · 203 games54% · 387 games
BeastmasterNoticed
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
55% · 170 games51% · 138 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
49% · 324 games49% · 189 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
46% · 99 games46% · 204 games
SilencerFng
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct22:6
Team Spirit 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
55% · 135 games47% · 151 game
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
47% · 316 games40% · 124 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
52% · 169 games52% · 245 games
BeastmasterNoticed
Beastmaster
Techies
TechiesMira
57% · 136 games50% · 202 games
EnchantressFng
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
55% · 43 games45% · 77 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct24:8
Team Spirit 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
55% · 82 games55% · 60 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
48% · 209 games52% · 175 games
BeastmasterNoticed
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
42% · 108 games43% · 192 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
43% · 112 games50% · 128 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
49% · 151 game63% · 107 games
TechiesFng
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3