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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%

Aster.Aries

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
708 picks · 596 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1078 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
428 picks · 754 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 203 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
373 picks · 538 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total92% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
Team Aster 77%Aster.Aries 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
50% · 102 games64% · 53 games
Naga SirenUlu
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
55% · 111 games41% · 90 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiXxs
51% · 40 games54% · 138 games
PuckXwy
Puck
Io
IoBoBoKa
47% · 73 games48% · 14 games
ClinkzTK
Clinkz
Techies
TechiesFantasy
47% · 105 games46% · 136 games
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Team Aster 77%Aster.Aries 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaMonet
little data44% · 98 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
53% · 190 games48% · 124 games
Batrider生死
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXxs
48% · 61 game54% · 118 games
PuckXwy
Puck
Pugna
PugnaBoBoKa
52% · 59 games48% · 187 games
EnchantressTK
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
54% · 344 games47% · 127 games
SilencerRedPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 92%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2