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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 14 games
71%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
15%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dendi · 7 games
86%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Funn1k · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
708 picks · 595 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1076 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 753 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
373 picks · 538 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
373 picks · 203 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength64% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total95% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:23
Shopify Rebellion 83%B8 Esports 17%
The model gave 83% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
54% · 65 games50% · 46 games
WindrangerStoneBank
Windranger
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
52% · 42 games50% · 75 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
45% · 110 games40% · 45 games
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Spirit Breaker
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
55% · 82 games49% · 125 games
PhoenixFunn1k
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
56% · 16 games55% · 24 games
Vengeful SpiritLodine
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct42:16
Shopify Rebellion 84%B8 Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArteezy
59% · 36 games44% · 59 games
WindrangerDendi
Windranger
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
49% · 39 games54% · 47 games
Phantom LancerStoneBank
Phantom Lancer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
50% · 74 games43% · 43 games
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Spirit Breaker
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
44% · 51 game53% · 110 games
Winter WyvernFunn1k
Winter Wyvern
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
52% · 84 games56% · 25 games
Vengeful SpiritLodine
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 95%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2