Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TRocket
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 7 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 594 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1073 bans
Doom
427 picks · 750 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1009 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
373 picks · 537 bans
Mirana
373 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:30
TRocket 53%Block Roar Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TRocket — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCarJua
MagnusNaoG
Ember SpiritJeimari
Rubickd1smar
Keeper of the LightPamplona
Game 2prediction missed18:30
TRocket 52%Block Roar Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TRocket — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCarJua
MagnusNaoG
Ember SpiritJeimari
Keeper of the Lightd1smar
RubickPamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 52%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2