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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 33 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 21 game
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
64%

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
705 picks · 594 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1071 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 749 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1008 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
373 picks · 537 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 816 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Felt
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
TSM 66%Felt 34%
The model gave 66% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTimado
49% · 52 games60% · 161 game
Naga SirenBerna
Naga Siren
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
46% · 102 games54% · 49 games
Bounty Huntersolji
Bounty Hunter
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
40% · 63 games58% · 197 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Clinkz
ClinkzAri
47% · 22 games52% · 117 games
Skywrath Magealbinozebra
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickWhitemon
41% · 285 games
Game 2prediction correct46:24
TSM 65%Felt 35%
The model gave 65% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
48% · 70 games54% · 174 games
TerrorbladeBerna
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusTimado
49% · 67 games52% · 27 games
AxeFayde
Axe
Techies
Techieskasane
59% · 75 games50% · 278 games
Miranasolji
Mirana
Venomancer
VenomancerWhitemon
50% · 25 games47% · 76 games
Pugnaalbinozebra
Pugna
Rubick
RubickAri
43% · 318 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 78%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2