Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 26 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 23 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1079 bans
Doom
427 picks · 745 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1013 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength63% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total89% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:34
Gaimin Gladiators 89%Entity 11%
The model gave 89% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Entity in 53:30.
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Gaimin Gladiators 89%Entity 11%
The model gave 89% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 48:14.
Game 3prediction correct32:9
Gaimin Gladiators 89%Entity 11%
The model gave 89% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 89%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3