Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
los moticucoswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TRocketloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
los moticucos
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Accel · 2 games
Rubick
Accel · 2 games
Tusk
Alone · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Disruptor
Accel · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
TRocket
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1077 bans
Doom
427 picks · 743 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1011 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
los moticucos 53%TRocket 47%
The model gave 53% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Anti-MageCarJua
LifestealerAlone
PangolierJeimari
UnderlordOscar
UndyingPamplona
MedusaAccel
Pugnasl4d1n-
Game 2prediction missed30:14
los moticucos 50%TRocket 50%
The model gave 50% on TRocket — the game was taken by los moticucos in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeParker
AlchemistCarJua
BatriderAlone
Storm SpiritJeimari
TimbersawOscar
Skywrath MagePamplona
Bounty Huntersl4d1n-
PugnaAccel
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 52%
Series resultlos moticucos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2