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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 15 games
27%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 21 game
48%
Undying
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 605 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
445 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 744 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1014 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 368 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 203 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 827 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:25
IVY 55%KZ TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 51:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerOtaker
48% · 42 games39% · 68 games
Queen of PainG.T.I
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperMoonlight
61% · 62 games48% · 150 games
Death ProphetMr. Luck
Death Prophet
Visage
VisageMikSa`
57% · 111 games49% · 146 games
UndyingNikolica
Undying
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerrue
51% · 31 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenjmn-
53% · 118 games
Game 2prediction correct25:12
IVY 53%KZ TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautOtaker
46% · 44 games55% · 191 game
DoomMr. Luck
Doom
Batrider
BatriderMikSa`
48% · 166 games46% · 227 games
Death ProphetG.T.I
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
53% · 122 games52% · 235 games
MiranaNikolica
Mirana
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightrue
50% · 159 games
Silencer
Silencerjmn-
48% · 162 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 57%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2