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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 25 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 605 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
444 picks · 1073 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 739 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1014 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 822 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Tundra Esports 70%PSG Quest 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnus33
34% · 45 games52% · 99 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
55% · 110 games49% · 71 game
MarsATF
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNine
56% · 27 games53% · 57 games
Winter WyvernNo!ob
Winter Wyvern
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
47% · 117 games47% · 20 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSneyking
32% · 13 games60% · 65 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 2prediction missed19:33
Tundra Esports 71%PSG Quest 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:01:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
54% · 118 games42% · 50 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNine
57% · 49 games34% · 51 game
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSaksa
47% · 24 games39% · 73 games
MarsATF
Mars
Visage
Visage33
62% · 139 games42% · 75 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleSneyking
53% · 30 games55% · 111 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct29:22
Tundra Esports 70%PSG Quest 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 57:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNine
45% · 84 games50% · 109 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
50% · 80 games47% · 59 games
WindrangerNo!ob
Windranger
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
50% · 99 games44% · 98 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Visage
Visage33
57% · 109 games47% · 122 games
MarsATF
Mars
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
55% · 112 games55% · 96 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3