Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Not one step back gamingwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bald Dynastyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Not one step back gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Bald Dynasty
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Axeoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Dark Willow
ряф^^ · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 490 bans
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1070 bans
Doom
426 picks · 734 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1011 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Not one step back gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Not one step back gaming 58%Bald Dynasty 42%
The model gave 58% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 40:46.
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Not one step back gaming 58%Bald Dynasty 42%
The model gave 58% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 25:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot one step back gaming · 58%
Series resultNot one step back gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2