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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 7 games
86%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 6 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
PlayHard · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
DuBu · 4 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
Xepher · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 603 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1070 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
426 picks · 734 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1011 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:14
Bleed Esports 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 1:06:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
51% · 123 games44% · 31 game
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Phantom Lancer
Beastmaster
Beastmastericeiceice
55% · 309 games53% · 218 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerDJ
36% · 55 games54% · 142 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerDuBu
44% · 201 game51% · 99 games
Keeper of the LightXepher
Keeper of the Light
57% · 198 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Bleed Esports 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 49:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomiceiceice
53% · 263 games47% · 130 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Slark
SlarkJaCkky
52% · 189 games49% · 207 games
Death ProphetYopaj
Death Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDJ
50% · 158 games50% · 170 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerDuBu
44% · 204 games55% · 110 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
51% · 197 games
UndyingxNova
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 65%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2