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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ram Squadloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ram Squad

Doom
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
w33 · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
w33 · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
100%

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 603 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
443 picks · 1070 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
426 picks · 734 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1011 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:24
Ram Squad 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertacanceL^^
54% · 14 games50% · 70 games
Death ProphetG.T.I
Death Prophet
Ursa
UrsakAAN
48% · 73 games48% · 54 games
UnderlordMr. Luck
Underlord
Clinkz
Clinkzw33
63% · 16 games50% · 24 games
VenomancerNikolica
Venomancer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBliNcc
46% · 29 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFlash
50% · 16 games
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Ram Squad 44%KZ TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkercanceL^^
44% · 22 games47% · 176 games
Death ProphetMr. Luck
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingkAAN
52% · 191 game51% · 189 games
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBliNcc
47% · 35 games55% · 173 games
ClockwerkNikolica
Clockwerk
Clinkz
Clinkzw33
53% · 15 games
Undying
UndyingFlash
49% · 275 games
Game 3prediction correct41:37
Ram Squad 45%KZ TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 56:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkkAAN
55% · 54 games52% · 150 games
EnigmaMr. Luck
Enigma
Clinkz
Clinkzw33
50% · 8 games35% · 66 games
InvokerG.T.I
Invoker
Puck
PuckcanceL^^
56% · 89 games43% · 114 games
SilencerNikolica
Silencer
Marci
MarciBliNcc
61% · 142 games
Lich
LichFlash
52% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 64%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3