Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Kickedloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Team Kicked
Doomoften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Eyyou · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Disruptor
Eyyou · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Rubick
Jing · 2 games
Techies
Jing · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Eyyou · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1067 bans
Doom
425 picks · 730 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1009 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Kicked
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Neon Esports 58%Team Kicked 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistFortuneSoul
TerrorbladeAbat
Ember SpiritKen
Spirit BreakerSam_H
Dark WillowHishge
PugnaJing
54% · 95 games
SilencerEyyou
Game 2prediction correct35:24
Neon Esports 55%Team Kicked 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeFortuneSoul
Faceless VoidAbat
Void SpiritKen
Spirit BreakerSam_H
Dark WillowHishge
TechiesEyyou
45% · 30 games
PugnaJing
Game 3prediction correct31:27
Neon Esports 57%Team Kicked 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKen
LifestealerAbat
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
Spirit BreakerSam_H
EnchantressHishge
WindrangerJing
50% · 66 games
TechiesEyyou
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 62%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3