Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Kickedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 8 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Rikioften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Team Kicked
Doomoften banned
Sam_H · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Disruptor
Eyyou · 2 games
Rubick
Jing · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Eyyou · 2 games
Techies
Jing · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Eyyou · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Sam_H · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
440 picks · 1063 bans
Doom
422 picks · 728 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1006 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 201 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 814 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Team Kicked
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Kicked
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:43
Team Tough 45%Team Kicked 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Kicked — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 56:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnusseimei
MedusaAbat
52% · 29 games
DoomSam_H
46% · 9 games
WindrangerJing
55% · 16 games
SilencerEyyou
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Team Tough 46%Team Kicked 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Kicked — the game was taken by Team Kicked in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnusseimei
UrsaAbat
52% · 29 games
DoomSam_H
55% · 16 games
SilencerEyyou
38% · 12 games
PugnaJing
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kicked · 53%
Series resultTeam Kicked 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2