Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
55meowloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Rubick
Newsham · 11 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
5meow
Alchemistoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Chives · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Save · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Chives · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Save · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1059 bans
Doom
422 picks · 722 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1002 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% 5meow
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:8
Fart Studios 49%5meow 51%
The model gave 51% on 5meow — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautBSJ
MagnusChives
Batridermonkeys-forever
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
TinyNewsham
AlchemistSonic
TechiesJenkins
OracleSave
Game 2prediction missed28:28
Fart Studios 49%5meow 51%
The model gave 51% on 5meow — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightBSJ
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Magnusmonkeys-forever
Spirit BreakerChives
ClockwerkNewsham
RubickSave
TechiesJenkins
DisruptorSonic
Model check result
Model favorite5meow · 54%
Series resultFart Studios 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2