Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pacific esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
716 picks · 601 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
438 picks · 1061 bans
Doom
422 picks · 721 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1003 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 366 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 814 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Pacific esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Universitario Esports 47%Pacific esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 36:31.
Game 2prediction correct38:9
Universitario Esports 47%Pacific esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific esports · 53%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2