Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
chandogswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NLNo Limits Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
chandogs
No games played over 6 months.
No Limits Gaming
Tusk
Zxca · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 7 games
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
722 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1060 bans
Doom
423 picks · 718 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 370 bans
Undying
380 picks · 605 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
chandogs 45%No Limits Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by chandogs in 34:03.
Game 2prediction missed42:17
chandogs 45%No Limits Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by chandogs in 37:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 55%
Series resultchandogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2