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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
kefteme.mp3win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

kefteme.mp3

No games played over 6 months.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1056 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 704 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 1006 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
384 picks · 608 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 76%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
kefteme.mp3 50%Matreshka Team 50%
The model gave 50% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 1:03:51.
Game 2prediction missed12:20
kefteme.mp3 50%Matreshka Team 50%
The model gave 50% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 25:38.
Game 3prediction missed11:33
kefteme.mp3 50%Matreshka Team 50%
The model gave 50% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 50%
Series resultkefteme.mp3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3