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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 20 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 13 games
77%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1053 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 698 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 999 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
Virtus.pro 58%Hydra 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 50:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
51% · 249 games41% · 69 games
Phantom LancerKami
Phantom Lancer
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
49% · 144 games51% · 336 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
56% · 162 games46% · 98 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
47% · 78 games55% · 249 games
MiranaLil
Mirana
Undying
UndyingFng
55% · 290 games45% · 171 game
SilencerHappyDyurara
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Virtus.pro 58%Hydra 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
49% · 237 games57% · 133 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSquad1x
55% · 317 games50% · 156 games
BatriderCloud
Batrider
Techies
Techiessayuw
52% · 135 games45% · 121 game
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterNoticed
57% · 55 games45% · 342 games
RubickLil
Rubick
Oracle
OracleFng
53% · 62 games39% · 54 games
PugnaHappyDyurara
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct15:11
Virtus.pro 57%Hydra 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
55% · 62 games39% · 100 games
MagnusKami
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
56% · 343 games50% · 227 games
BatriderCloud
Batrider
Tiny
TinySquad1x
53% · 625 games44% · 206 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesFng
58% · 155 games49% · 616 games
RubickLil
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
51% · 162 games44% · 198 games
Keeper of the LightHappyDyurara
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3