Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 8 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Rikioften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
seimei · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1050 bans
Doom
424 picks · 697 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 996 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 372 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
Team Tough 53%InterActive Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 35:48.
Game 2prediction missed5:32
Team Tough 53%InterActive Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tough — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 34:17.
Game 3prediction correct23:18
Team Tough 53%InterActive Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 39:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 53%
Series resultTeam Tough 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3