Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Triseumloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Not one step back gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Triseum
Clinkzoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Not one step back gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1050 bans
Doom
424 picks · 694 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 995 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Not one step back gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
Triseum 40%Not one step back gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 35:38.
Game 2prediction missed22:3
Triseum 40%Not one step back gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Triseum in 27:55.
Game 3prediction correct12:13
Triseum 40%Not one step back gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 26:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot one step back gaming · 60%
Series resultNot one step back gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3