Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Piggy Killerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Piggy Killer
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 6 games
Disruptor
mercy · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 5 games
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
724 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
435 picks · 1047 bans
Doom
421 picks · 690 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 991 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 72%
Hero pool strength64% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Invictus Gaming 46%Piggy Killer 54%
The model gave 54% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 36:04.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Invictus Gaming 46%Piggy Killer 54%
The model gave 54% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 42:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 54%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2