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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GateKeptloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

goons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
AfrOmoush · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
100%

GateKept

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
JP · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Chen · 1 game
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%
Windranger
Windranger
JP · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
723 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 487 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
435 picks · 1046 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
420 picks · 686 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 991 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
381 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% GateKept
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
goons 56%GateKept 44%
The model gave 56% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBoris
53% · 37 games51% · 59 games
Chaos KnightJP
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomLil_Nick
50% · 94 games52% · 15 games
ClinkzChen
Clinkz
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageGiant
44% · 32 games51% · 89 games
SilencerCHAAANNN
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct21:3
goons 59%GateKept 41%
The model gave 59% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 14:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerLil_Nick
53% · 132 games49% · 55 games
JuggernautJP
Juggernaut
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBoris
55% · 91 game51% · 105 games
DisruptorCHAAANNN
Disruptor
Techies
TechiesGiant
50% · 106 games43% · 169 games
RubickChen
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 65%
Series resultgoons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2