Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNLNo Limits Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Limits Gaming
Tusk
Zxca · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 7 games
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
TRocket
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
723 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
435 picks · 1046 bans
Doom
420 picks · 686 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 991 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
Undying
381 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
No Limits Gaming 50%TRocket 50%
The model gave 50% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerArms
Chaos KnightCarJua
Treant ProtectorLuis
Ember SpiritJeimari
43% · 67 games
PhoenixPamplona
Game 2prediction missed14:44
No Limits Gaming 53%TRocket 47%
The model gave 53% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeArms
AlchemistCarJua
Crystal MaidenLuis
Ember SpiritJeimari
50% · 93 games
UndyingPamplona
Game 3prediction missed10:30
No Limits Gaming 54%TRocket 46%
The model gave 54% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArms
LifestealerCarJua
UndyingLuis
Storm SpiritJeimari
43% · 61 game
Skywrath MagePamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 54%
Series resultTRocket 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3