Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
los moticucoswin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Block Roar Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
los moticucos
No games played over 6 months.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1044 bans
Doom
415 picks · 683 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 991 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 370 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
los moticucos 51%Block Roar Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on los moticucos — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion CommanderParker
MagnusNaoG
TuskAlone
Techiesd1smar
BeastmasterOscar
Keeper of the Lightsl4d1n-
RubickAccel
Game 2prediction missed41:45
los moticucos 49%Block Roar Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 1:22:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaParker
Anti-MageNaoG
Dark SeerOscar
Liond1smar
Bounty Huntersl4d1n-
TuskAlone
Keeper of the LightAccel
Game 3prediction correct44:29
los moticucos 51%Block Roar Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 1:08:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenParker
AlchemistNaoG
MagnusAlone
Pugnad1smar
DoomOscar
Rubicksl4d1n-
DisruptorAccel
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 51%
Series resultlos moticucos 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3