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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 33 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 18 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 485 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1044 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
415 picks · 683 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 991 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 370 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
TSM 56%Team DogChamp 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
60% · 60 games60% · 87 games
Medusadnm
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
47% · 271 game54% · 258 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
51% · 360 games39% · 260 games
Death Prophetred2
Death Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
44% · 172 games52% · 15 games
ClinkzMoOz
Clinkz
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorWhitemon
57% · 39 games44% · 282 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed26:24
TSM 59%Team DogChamp 41%
The model gave 59% on TSM — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
57% · 51 game55% · 84 games
Medusadnm
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
50% · 265 games53% · 303 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
50% · 300 games47% · 85 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaAri
51% · 237 games43% · 84 games
PugnaMoOz
Pugna
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorWhitemon
52% · 32 games45% · 329 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct32:9
TSM 58%Team DogChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTimado
48% · 96 games48% · 186 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Windranger
Windrangerbryle-
47% · 48 games55% · 123 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
49% · 330 games54% · 63 games
Queen of Painred2
Queen of Pain
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 117 games45% · 52 games
PugnaMoOz
Pugna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritAri
45% · 29 games55% · 196 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 67%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3