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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
84%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 18 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
82%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 24 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 23 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
730 picks · 613 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 486 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1046 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
414 picks · 681 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 990 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 373 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
387 picks · 607 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 206 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total59% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
Team Liquid 46%Gaimin Gladiators 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
50% · 165 games50% · 161 game
DoomAce
Doom
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magizai
58% · 29 games48% · 217 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
56% · 206 games38% · 45 games
Windrangerdyrachyo
Windranger
Techies
TechiesBoxi
53% · 99 games50% · 39 games
Bounty HunterSeleri
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
48% · 37 games47% · 74 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed32:5
Team Liquid 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
55% · 82 games50% · 111 games
DoomAce
Doom
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNisha
59% · 43 games45% · 20 games
Juggernautdyrachyo
Juggernaut
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerzai
49% · 28 games42% · 65 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesBoxi
53% · 73 games42% · 36 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
56% · 45 games45% · 39 games
Bounty HunterSeleri
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2