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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Triseumloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
67%

Triseum

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 614 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 486 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1046 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
414 picks · 681 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 991 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 609 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:39
Matreshka Team 51%Triseum 49%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Triseum in 1:06:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
little data62% · 55 games
MedusaArk
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerRetsu
25% · 12 games
Batrider
BatridermeLes
38% · 12 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLagoona
43% · 26 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magidark
56% · 5 games
Game 2prediction correct52:50
Matreshka Team 58%Triseum 42%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 1:12:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaRetsu
50% · 16 games47% · 62 games
MagnusArk
Magnus
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
43% · 10 games
Techies
TechiesLagoona
70% · 16 games
Legion Commander
Legion CommandermeLes
50% · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
45% · 16 games
Game 3prediction missed40:32
Matreshka Team 48%Triseum 52%
The model gave 52% on Triseum — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRetsu
44% · 5 games56% · 11 games
ClinkzArk
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
little data
Batrider
BatridermeLes
43% · 3 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLagoona
little data
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdark
43% · 3 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 62%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3