Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
735 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1044 bans
Doom
413 picks · 678 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 989 bans
Tiny
394 picks · 374 bans
Undying
390 picks · 608 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Tundra Esports 92%D2 Hustlers 8%
The model gave 92% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:50.
Game 2prediction correct23:5
Tundra Esports 92%D2 Hustlers 8%
The model gave 92% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2