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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Penguins Squadloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Universitario Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Ifrit · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ifrit · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
735 picks · 611 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1043 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
411 picks · 678 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 988 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 607 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
Universitario Esports 63%Penguins Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 29:08.
Game 2prediction missed23:30
Universitario Esports 63%Penguins Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 40:56.
Game 3prediction missed15:35
Universitario Esports 63%Penguins Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 40:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 63%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3