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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 15 games
27%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
429 picks · 1043 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
409 picks · 678 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 988 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 207 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
IVY 54%KZ TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautOtaker
39% · 15 games50% · 57 games
InvokerG.T.I
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
45% · 79 games55% · 54 games
RikiMr. Luck
Riki
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMikSa`
45% · 22 games58% · 171 game
DisruptorNikolica
Disruptor
Silencer
Silencerjmn-
46% · 100 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightrue
47% · 66 games
Game 2prediction correct35:19
IVY 56%KZ TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
56% · 127 games45% · 299 games
PangolierG.T.I
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
52% · 191 game46% · 157 games
TimbersawMr. Luck
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
57% · 223 games48% · 231 game
Crystal MaidenNikolica
Crystal Maiden
Dazzle
Dazzlejmn-
47% · 54 games
Techies
Techiesrue
55% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 59%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2