Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
kefteme.mp3win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
queezy · 22 games
Rubick
queezy · 19 games
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 10 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 615 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
429 picks · 1043 bans
Doom
409 picks · 678 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 988 bans
Tiny
397 picks · 374 bans
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
384 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:36
Sigma.YNT 35%kefteme.mp3 65%
The model gave 65% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 52:10.
Game 2prediction correct24:42
Sigma.YNT 35%kefteme.mp3 65%
The model gave 65% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 48:20.
Game 3prediction correct36:48
Sigma.YNT 35%kefteme.mp3 65%
The model gave 65% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 1:05:11.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 65%
Series resultkefteme.mp3 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3