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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Puppey · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
60%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 30 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
54%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
429 picks · 1041 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
407 picks · 677 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 988 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total50% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Team Secret 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
50% · 220 games52% · 49 games
MagnusYuragi
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerArmel
51% · 55 games51% · 49 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
52% · 101 game50% · 137 games
DoomDM
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
50% · 62 games52% · 31 game
PugnaAramis
Pugna
Lich
LichPuppey
51% · 71 game45% · 243 games
RubickChuvash
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed4:26
Team Secret 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
52% · 172 games40% · 73 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
53% · 121 game49% · 79 games
Faceless VoidYuragi
Faceless Void
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBOOM
48% · 99 games51% · 181 game
UndyingDM
Undying
Lich
LichPuppey
46% · 68 games46% · 73 games
Skywrath MageAramis
Skywrath Mage
Techies
Techiesyamich
59% · 98 games54% · 152 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct16:27
Team Secret 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
48% · 161 game55% · 162 games
DoomDM
Doom
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
47% · 210 games48% · 40 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritArmel
48% · 140 games51% · 273 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Techies
Techiesyamich
52% · 117 games48% · 139 games
Keeper of the LightAramis
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BanePuppey
49% · 116 games51% · 130 games
DisruptorChuvash
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 50%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3