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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Xepher · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
86%
Rubick
Rubick
Xepher · 7 games
29%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 24 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 616 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
428 picks · 1039 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
404 picks · 674 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 987 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
BOOM Esports 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
66% · 40 games54% · 84 games
MedusaPalos
Medusa
Doom
DoomFbz
53% · 106 games47% · 91 game
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
47% · 112 games49% · 50 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorXepher
45% · 63 games43% · 103 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
60% · 7 games
Game 2prediction missed48:44
BOOM Esports 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 1:10:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
52% · 330 games45% · 418 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomFbz
53% · 283 games56% · 241 game
TerrorbladePalos
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingNatsumi
55% · 215 games51% · 411 games
MiranaShanks
Mirana
Pugna
PugnaXepher
48% · 79 games47% · 130 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Disruptor
DisruptorxNova
44% · 293 games
Game 3prediction missed26:20
BOOM Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNatsumi
56% · 140 games51% · 275 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
47% · 96 games25% · 4 games
MuertaPalos
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
44% · 73 games52% · 248 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaXepher
51% · 204 games42% · 8 games
ClinkzShanks
Clinkz
Oracle
OraclexNova
46% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 65%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3