Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastywin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
No Sorry
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 17 games
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 10 games
Techies
y0nd · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 616 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
428 picks · 1039 bans
Doom
404 picks · 674 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 987 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:6
Bald Dynasty 51%No Sorry 49%
The model gave 51% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painряф^^
SpectreWoE
BatriderfortniteMan
Death ProphetMastery
VenomancerRein
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction missed31:13
Bald Dynasty 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierряф^^
Faceless VoidWoE
UnderlordfortniteMan
BeastmasterMastery
Keeper of the LightRein
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 50%
Series resultBald Dynasty 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2