Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Not one step back gamingwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Not one step back gaming
No games played over 6 months.
SIBE Team
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
Clockwerk
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
klassnokruto · 1 game
Earthshaker
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 1 game
Lich
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1037 bans
Doom
402 picks · 672 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 982 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Not one step back gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Not one step back gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:44
Not one step back gaming 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:06.
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Not one step back gaming 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 31:06.
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Not one step back gaming 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 34:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot one step back gaming · 57%
Series resultNot one step back gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3