Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XERXIAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
735 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1034 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 980 bans
Doom
400 picks · 670 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
Blacklist International 64%XERXIA 36%
The model gave 64% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by XERXIA in 47:31.
Game 2prediction missed7:32
Blacklist International 64%XERXIA 36%
The model gave 64% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by XERXIA in 39:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 64%
Series resultXERXIA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2