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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 19 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 19 games
74%

Infamous

Mirana
Miranasignature
Nuages · 25 games
68%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
735 picks · 613 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 482 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1031 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 979 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
399 picks · 666 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 373 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Evil Geniuses 76%Infamous 24%
The model gave 76% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusPakazs
44% · 49 games43% · 37 games
Lifestealermini-`
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
53% · 126 games42% · 41 game
Windranger4dr
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
42% · 88 games63% · 72 games
VisageHyko
Visage
Techies
TechiesMatthew
53% · 67 games52% · 164 games
MiranaNuages
Mirana
Oracle
OraclePanda
49% · 23 games49% · 39 games
Spirit BreakerJupiter
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Evil Geniuses 76%Infamous 24%
The model gave 76% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChris Luck
41% · 123 games48% · 189 games
Ursamini-`
Ursa
Slark
SlarkPakazs
52% · 133 games55% · 127 games
VisageHyko
Visage
Doom
DoomWisper
49% · 288 games44% · 103 games
Void Spirit4dr
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickMatthew
47% · 530 games53% · 393 games
MiranaNuages
Mirana
Techies
TechiesPanda
58% · 84 games52% · 346 games
ClockwerkJupiter
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 91%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2