Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionPEPegasus Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Penguins Squadwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pegasus Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Penguins Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Treant Protector
Ifrit · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Ifrit · 3 games
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 479 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1025 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 979 bans
Doom
399 picks · 661 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
392 picks · 607 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% Pegasus Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Penguins Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
Pegasus Esports 40%Penguins Squad 60%
The model gave 60% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Pegasus Esports in 42:53.
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Pegasus Esports 40%Penguins Squad 60%
The model gave 60% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 40:51.
Game 3prediction correct12:21
Pegasus Esports 40%Penguins Squad 60%
The model gave 60% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 26:09.
Model check result
Model favoritePenguins Squad · 60%
Series resultPenguins Squad 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3