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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 42 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 19 games
63%

One Move

Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 19 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Panto · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
744 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 477 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1021 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 374 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 972 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
396 picks · 651 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
9Pandas 62%One Move 38%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
47% · 72 games44% · 101 game
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
55% · 42 games49% · 74 games
RikiAinkrad
Riki
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
56% · 311 games53% · 131 game
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
52% · 109 games57% · 244 games
MiranaGilgir
Mirana
Undying
UndyingSolo
47% · 210 games41% · 194 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct39:19
9Pandas 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
57% · 11 games62% · 73 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
53% · 90 games37% · 99 games
Primal BeastAinkrad
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
50% · 282 games46% · 112 games
UnderlordAfterLife
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSolo
46% · 40 games59% · 87 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
44% · 124 games51% · 176 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 76%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2