Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 8 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Rikioften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
744 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 476 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1019 bans
Tiny
401 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 972 bans
Doom
395 picks · 647 bans
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
Team Tough 47%InterActive Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 29:36.
Game 2prediction missed23:13
Team Tough 47%InterActive Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Team Tough in 33:46.
Game 3prediction missed25:11
Team Tough 47%InterActive Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Team Tough in 29:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 53%
Series resultTeam Tough 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3