Team Kicked vs Neon Esports — prediction DPC2S3ЮЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Kickedloss 0:2

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Neon Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kicked

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Silencer

Hated · 8 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

Enryu · 5 games

60%

Snapfire

Hated · 5 games

40%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ken · 4 games

50%

Shadow Fiendoften banned

FortuneSoul · 4 games

75%

Batrideroften banned

Ken · 3 games

Bloodseekeroften banned

FortuneSoul · 3 games

67%

Broodmotheroften banned

Enryu · 3 games

67%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

742 picks · 605 bans

47%

Disruptor

548 picks · 476 bans

55%

Beastmaster

423 picks · 1014 bans

58%

Tiny

402 picks · 375 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

398 picks · 967 bans

51%

Doom

394 picks · 643 bans

54%

Undying

389 picks · 604 bans

50%

Mirana

380 picks · 204 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%

Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct11:34

Team Kicked 38%Neon Esports 62%

The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo