IVY vs Gen of Miracles — prediction DPC2S3ЗЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

IVYwin 2:0

series probability

74%26%

probability at match start · final 2:0

GOGen of Miraclesloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshracoften banned

pio65 · 18 games

39%

Mirana

Qupe · 18 games

50%

Tiny

Qupe · 17 games

41%

Tusk

Mo13ei · 17 games

53%

Clockwerksignature

Qupe · 15 games

67%

Snapfire

Qupe · 15 games

27%

Treant Protector

jmn- · 13 games

31%

Luna

pio65 · 12 games

33%

Gen of Miracles

Disruptor

Stoic · 1 game

Doomoften banned

ChodΣX · 1 game

Grimstroke

Stoic · 1 game

Underlordoften banned

ChodΣX · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

742 picks · 605 bans

47%

Disruptor

548 picks · 476 bans

55%

Beastmaster

423 picks · 1014 bans

58%

Tiny

402 picks · 375 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

398 picks · 967 bans

51%

Doom

394 picks · 643 bans

54%

Undying

389 picks · 604 bans

50%

Mirana

380 picks · 204 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)31% vs 38%

Hero pool strength53% IVY

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total74% IVY

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct24:8

IVY 64%Gen of Miracles 36%

The model gave 64% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 29:25.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo