?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
50%

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 476 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1013 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 375 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 965 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
393 picks · 642 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
389 picks · 604 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:18
Team Aster 60%Azure Ray 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomXxs
56% · 222 games45% · 25 games
Muertalou
Muerta
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSumaiL
43% · 85 games52% · 255 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Slark
SlarkMonet
51% · 131 game53% · 136 games
BatriderChalice
Batrider
Techies
TechiesBoBoKa
49% · 82 games46% · 137 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneFantasy
46% · 108 games54% · 75 games
Nyx Assassin天命
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct39:21
Team Aster 61%Azure Ray 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 54:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
61% · 78 games47% · 126 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
54% · 151 game40% · 40 games
WindrangerSomnus
Windranger
Visage
VisageXxs
52% · 136 games45% · 100 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerFantasy
44% · 149 games48% · 188 games
BeastmasterChalice
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
56% · 26 games53% · 86 games
Nyx Assassin天命
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 70%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2