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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Mirana
Dy · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
50%

Team Bright

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 474 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1011 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 376 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 964 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 640 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Xtreme Gaming 62%Team Bright 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomJT-
54% · 137 games51% · 349 games
Ember Spiritphoenix
Ember Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
39% · 108 games56% · 119 games
RikiIrving
Riki
Puck
PuckPaparazi
54% · 105 games51% · 106 games
TechiesUndyne_
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixKaka
41% · 53 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
49% · 171 game
Game 2prediction correct20:4
Xtreme Gaming 60%Team Bright 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomJT-
50% · 124 games47% · 372 games
Death Prophetphoenix
Death Prophet
Sven
SvenGhost
56% · 30 games46% · 59 games
BrewmasterIrving
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
61% · 52 games51% · 75 games
LichUndyne_
Lich
Rubick
RubickKaka
51% · 260 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDy
46% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 73%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2