Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstenszloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Tusk
dalul · 27 games
Rubick
TraVins · 23 games
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
Tiny
dalul · 19 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 13 games
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
742 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 474 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1012 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 966 bans
Doom
392 picks · 638 bans
Undying
390 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:4
SPAWN Team 49%Carstensz 51%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 16:30.
Game 2prediction missed40:11
SPAWN Team 49%Carstensz 51%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 28:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 51%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2